SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF CRIME IN THREE PROVINCES, SOUTHERN THAILAND: HOTSPOT, FACTORS, AND ACCESSIBILITY

Abstract

Thailand has faced with problems of criminal and disorder situations in Three southern border provinces in Pattani, Yala, and Narathiwat since 2004 until present. In overall, such situations seem continuously violent since troublemakers still attempt to harm innocent people and fight back to the government officers in every chance. Consequently, the criminal problems in these areas are complicated with more and more violence as reported in various media. These problems cause people’s fear and mental instability and they have effects on the national economy, societies, and security.

Using a map to explain the areas with criminal density can support a decision-making process of planners and police officers to plan for criminal prevention in risk areas. This study collected the data of disordering incidents from security agencies and reliable sources during 2017 – 2020 and processed them with the geography information system (GIS) by using spatial statistics for examining the criminal patterns. The purpose was to explain the criminal cases in Three southern border provinces to find out the patterns of criminal behaviors in shooting, bombing, drugs, physical violence, and arson. In addition, Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) was also used to display distribution of criminal patterns, hotspots classified according to offences, criminal periods, and criminal density in each area. After that the correlation coefficient and regression analyses were used to find out relationship of different factors with effects on crime incidents in Three southern border provinces whereas. The two-step floating catchment area (2SFCA) was used to analyze the accessibility index of police stations and checkpoints in criminal areas. The results were presented in statistics and maps on particular issues to be explained.

The study results showed that the crime cases took place in a clustered patterned at repeated criminal areas or nearby previous criminal areas. In the analysis of high-risk areas (hot spots), shooting cases took place at the highest rate of other cases, followed by bombing cases, physical violence cases, arson cases, and drug cases. 1) The highest density of shooting cases was found at Mueang District, Yala Province in community and city areas, frequently at night during > 06 pm – 12 pm. 2) The highest density of bombing cases was found at Mueang Yala District, Yala Province at roadsides and police officers’ traffic paths, frequently during daytime at 06 am – 12 pm. 3) The highest density of physical violence was found at Nong Chik District, Pattani Province in public places and blind spots, frequently during daytime at >12 am – 06 pm. 4) The highest density of arson cases was found at Mueang Pattani District, Pattani Province in the areas with buildings and workplaces, frequently at night during > 12 pm - 06 am. And 5) the highest density of drug cases was found at Takbai District, Narathiwat Province at the border areas of Thailand, frequently at night during > 06 pm – 12 pm. In overall, the least criminal and disorder incidents was found in Yala Province in comparison with Pattani and Narathiwat Provinces.

Regarding the accessibility index of police stations and checkpoints on criminal incidents, the police station which should highly servient to cope with crimes in the area was Mueang Pattani Police Station in Pattani Province, followed by Ra-ngae Police Station in Narathiwat, Ma Yor Police Station in Pattani Province, and Reuso Police Station in Narathiwat respectively. The results of this study can be used for guidelines in criminal prevention or reduction, and they are useful for police officers in planning for criminal prevention in Three southern border provinces.

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